Evaluate soccer's most valuable goals

Goal Value measures how much a goal changes a team's win probability based on the context in which it was scored. Not all goals are created equal—a last-minute equalizer is worth more than a goal that makes it 4-0.

The metric is calculated by analyzing historical match data across thousands of games. For each goal, we look at:

• When it was scored: A goal in the 90th minute has more value than one in the 10th minute
• The score difference: Equalizing from 0-1 down is more valuable than extending a 3-0 lead
• Match outcome: Whether the team that scored the goal went on to win, draw, or lose

By aggregating historical outcomes for similar situations (same minute, same score difference), we calculate the expected change in win probability for each goal. A Goal Value of +0.64 means that goal increased the team's win probability by 64 percentage points on average.

This allows us to identify which goals truly mattered—those that turned defeats into draws, draws into wins, or secured crucial victories when it mattered most.